Published 6th of September 2017

Job gains up 60% in first two months post-referendum, versus 2015.

Are BREXIT confidence and uncertainty fears unfounded?

KEY FINDINGS

The Alert Jobs Barometer pinpointed the creation of 61,000 new jobs in the two months immediately post-referendum - i.e. 1st July to 31st August 2016. This is 60% more than the 38,000 job gains recorded for the same period in 2015, and 13% more than for the two months prior to the vote - i.e. for May and June 2016 - when 54,000 new jobs were recorded.

31,000 job losses were recorded in the two months immediately post-referendum - i.e. 1st July to 31st August 2016. This was similar in scale to the 30,000 losses recorded for the same period in 2015 BUT was 48% less than the 57,760 losses in the two months immediately prior to the referendum (i.e. May and June 2016).

JOB MOVEMENTS - SELECTED MONTHS 2015 / 2016

COMMENTARY

We mentioned in the first Alert Jobs Barometer report, post-referendum, published 1st August, that it was too soon to expect any dramatic changes in the jobs picture as a result of the vote. The same applies a month on. Article 50 has yet to be triggered, and it may be 2019 before BREXIT actually happens.

It's interesting, however, to note that job gains for July and August are 60% up on the same 2015 period, 13% ahead of the pre-referendum months AND.... that job losses immediately post-referendum were 48% less than for the two months just prior.

Some observers would suggest this indicates that the BREXIT doom-mongers got it wrong and that the UK isn't suffering the uncertainties and lack of confidence predicted. Let's wait and see how things look in a year or so.

Detailed insights that Alert Research gathers on a sector-by-sector basis suggest the jobs picture is reflecting the usual array of competitive, financial, customer demand and other pressures and pulls. The retail sector for example has for some years been experiencing major structural change as a result of competition, technology, service developments and fast changing consumer behaviour - significant job gains and losses are resulting. Nothing really to do with the potential impact of BREXIT.

That said, some organisations undoubtedly took the opportunity, under the referendum umbrella, to restructure operations and overheads, leading to the higher job loss rate witnessed - and with more to come no doubt. Others, post-referendum, jumped off the fence and implemented expansion and other plans that had been on hold OR put into motion initiatives, such as a new/accelerated interest in investigating and entering international markets - Plans geared towards maximising the organisations response to the BREXIT vote, both in the domestic UK market and further afield.


JOB GAINS SUMMARY - AUG 2016

78% of the August job gains were spread across five sectors: Retailing, Support Services, Leisure, Information Technology and Construction.

JOB LOSSES SUMMARY - AUG 2016

63% of the August job losses were spread across five sectors: Leisure, Support Services, Construction, Engineering and Financial Services.

Leisure, Support Services and Construction feature in both rankings, reflecting the reality that winners and losers often exist side-by-side as they grapple to hold onto current customers, capture new opportunities - and make a profit!

If you would like to know more of the detail behind these figures and the organisations involved in the gains or losses, contact Alert today.

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MORE INFORMATION

Over 6 million job gains & losses pinpointed since 2005

About the Jobs Barometer - The Alert Bi Jobs Barometer is updated daily with the job creation and job loss activity of hundreds of organisations experiencing dynamic change. It reflects today's job market reality and is not based on sampling, speculative forecasts or subjective employer sentiment about the future. The data is gathered from rigorous media monitoring across 200,000 sources, data analysis of employment moves within organisations that are growing, downsizing or restructuring, plus other relevant research. Since Alert was initially founded in 2005, over 6 million job gains and losses have been detected and recorded. No one else has this type of data!